AE AU AL forecast
This product provides forecasts of the AE, AU and AL geomagnetic indices, as 5 minute mean values, using the IRF-AE-2020 model. The model contains three separate forecast models that were developed using neural networks and trained using each index and level 2 data from the ACE spacecraft. The models are driven by official real-time solar wind data from SPWC.
The lead time is typically between 20-110 minutes, with a median value of 60 minutes, but can sometimes be negative if solar wind data is missing. The official solar wind data consists of data from DSCOVR and ACE, where DSCOVR is the default spacecraft since July, 2016. During times of outages, coverage gaps, or problems with the data, SWPC may switch spacecraft.
The AE indices are derived at WDC in Kyoto, Japan, using geomagnetic variations in the horizontal component observed at selected observatories in the northern hemisphere. For each time stamp (in UT) the largest and smallest values are selected. The resulting time series constitute the AU (upper) and AL (lower) indices. They are a measure of the eastward and westward auroral electrojets, respectively. The AE index is the difference between AU and AL, and represents the overall activity of the electrojets.
- The real-time solar wind data are obtained from SWPC
- The AE indices are available from WDC
- The development of the AE forecast models was first carried out within the EU project PROGRESS, No. 637302, and then later within ESA contract 4000134036/21/D/MRP.
- The models have been implemented at the ESA S2P portal under G-ESC, where also past forecasts are available.